Ukraine
Based on the most recent published official birth records (and Birthgap harmonisation where noted).
Ukraine's fertility landscape in 2021 continued a declining trend with completed fertility rate falling to 0.634, the lowest in Europe and globally ranked last, marking a 2.2 percentage point drop from 2020. Concurrently, childlessness indicators showed a slight rise, with the Total Childlessness Rate increasing to 36.6%. Average maternal age remains strikingly low by European standards but edged up slightly to 25.7 years.
- Total Fertility Rate dropped by 2.2 percentage points since 2020, maintaining Ukraine's position at the bottom of European and global rankings.
- Average maternal age at childbirth increased marginally by 0.18 years, yet remains the lowest in Europe and globally.
- Childlessness continues to rise, with the Total Childlessness Rate up by 2.2 percentage points since 2020, reaching 36.6%, exceeding the European average.
- Lifetime fertility among mothers (Children per mother) declined slightly to 1.83 in 2021, continuing a downward trajectory from previous years.
In 2021, Ukraine experienced some of the lowest fertility and maternal age indicators in Europe, reflecting long-term declines and demographic shifts since the 1970s.
- Lowest total maternal rate (TMR) in Europe, lowest globally among 38 countries
- Lowest average maternal age at birth in Europe and globally
- Fertility at 1.83 children per mother, below European average
- Highest birthgap generational indicator (TFG) decline globally and in Europe
- Shortest societal half-life (SHL) in Europe and worldwide
Key fertility indicators — Ukraine
| Childlessness Rate (TCR) | 36.6% |
| Children per Mother (CPM) | 1.83 |
| Average Maternal Age (AMA) | 25.7 years |
| Birthgap Indicator (TFG) | 44.0% |
| TGI (great-grandchildren per 100 parents) | 18 |
Motherhood prevalence (TMR)
In Ukraine, the total motherhood prevalence rate stood at 63.4% in 2021, marking a decrease of 2.2 percentage points from the previous year. This rate has been on a downward trend over the last five years, with the average from 2017 to 2021 at 67.0%. When compared to figures from the 1970s, which averaged 103.4%, current levels have dropped by roughly 40 percentage points.
Globally, Ukraine ranks last (38th out of 38) for motherhood prevalence, and it also holds the lowest position (31st out of 31) within Europe.
| Year | TMR | Year | TMR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | 104.3% | 2010 | 72.9% |
| 1980 | 102.6% | 2020 | 65.6%* |
| 1990 | 99.3% | 2021 | 63.4%* |
| 2000 | 66.5% |
Source: Human Fertility Database. *Measure estimated by Birthgap.org based on partial data from Derzhstat.
Children per mother (CPM)
The children per mother (CPM) in Ukraine stood at 1.829 in 2021, slightly declining from 1.855 in 2020. This figure has been gradually decreasing over the last five years, with the average CPM during that period recorded at 1.873. When compared to the 1970s average of 1.9747, the current rate is approximately 0.15 lower.
| Year | CPM | Year | CPM |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | 2.02 | 2010 | 1.96 |
| 1980 | 1.89 | 2020 | 1.85* |
| 1990 | 1.86 | 2021 | 1.83* |
| 2000 | 1.68 |
Source: Human Fertility Database. *Measure estimated by Birthgap.org based on partial data from Derzhstat.
Average maternal age (AMA)
The average maternal age (AMA) at birth reached 25.7 years in 2021, reflecting a modest increase of 0.2 years from the previous year. Over the last five years, the AMA has been on an upward trend, with a five-year average of 25.4 years. This figure is 2.5 years greater than the average maternal age recorded during the 1970s. Despite this rise, Ukraine maintains the lowest average maternal age both globally and within Europe.
| Year | BIRTH | Year | BIRTH |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | 23.58 | 2010 | 24.37 |
| 1980 | 22.80 | 2020 | 25.53* |
| 1990 | 22.34 | 2021 | 25.71* |
| 2000 | 22.89 |
Source: Human Fertility Database. *Measure estimated by Birthgap.org based on partial data from Derzhstat.
Birthgap Generational Indicator (TFG)
The 2021 Birthgap Generational Indicator (TFG) stands at 44.0% (matching a TFR of 1.16), marking an increase of 2.8 percentage points from 2020. Childlessness has been on the rise over the last five years, with the 2017–2021 average reaching 39.3%. This figure is about 42.0 percentage points higher than the baseline level in the 1970s, which was 2.0%. The TFG was at its lowest during the early 1970s (1970–1972), with an average of 0.0%. Ukraine holds the lowest TFG level globally, ranking 38 out of 38 countries, and similarly ranks last within Europe at 31 out of 31.
| Year | TFG | Year | TFG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | n/a | 2010 | 31.0% |
| 1980 | 6.4% | 2020 | 41.2%* |
| 1990 | 10.8% | 2021 | 44.0%* |
| 2000 | 46.1% |
Source: Human Fertility Database. *Measure estimated by Birthgap.org based on partial data from Derzhstat.
Societal Half-Life (SHL)
Ukraine’s SHL stands at 33.2 years years in 2021. It has decreased by 2.8 years compared with 2020. Over the past five years, SHL has been falling, averaging 38.4 years. Compared with the 1970s average (1224.9 years), SHL is now shorter by about 1191.7 years.
Globally, Ukraine has the shortest Societal Half-Life (ranked 38/38).Within Europe, Ukraine has the shortest SHL value (ranked 31/31).
Triple Generation Impact (TGI)
With this Birthgap (TFG) for every 100 people of fertility age in Ukraine, there would be 18 great-grandchildren, representing a -82.0% drop from the current generation.
Globally, Ukraine has the lowest TGI drop (ranked 38/38). Within Europe, Ukraine has the lowest TGI drop (ranked 31/31).
Birth trajectory
Looking at birth trends from 2021, the total number of births is expected to drop significantly over the coming decades. From 273,772 births recorded in 2021, projections indicate a 50% decline to 136,886 by 2054. The decrease continues sharply, reaching a 90% reduction with just 27,377 births anticipated by 2131. These estimates consider natural population changes without factoring in migration.
Childlessness rate (TCR)
In 2021, the childlessness rate (TCR) in Ukraine reached 36.6%, marking an increase of 2.2 percentage points from the 34.4% recorded in 2020. Over the five years from 2017 to 2021, this rate has shown an upward trend, averaging 33.0%. When compared to the baseline of the 1970s, which stood at -3.4%, the current figure is approximately 40 percentage points higher. Ukraine ranks lowest in childlessness globally, positioned at 38 out of 38 countries, and similarly holds the lowest rate within Europe, ranking 31 out of 31.
| Year | TCR | Year | TCR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | -4.3% | 2010 | 27.1% |
| 1980 | -2.6% | 2020 | 34.4%* |
| 1990 | 0.7% | 2021 | 36.6%* |
| 2000 | 33.5% |
Source: Human Fertility Database. *Measure estimated by Birthgap.org based on partial data from Derzhstat.
Total births
In 2021, Ukraine recorded 273,772 total births, marking a decrease of 19,685 from the previous year. The number of births has been declining over the last five years, with an average of 315,181 annually. This figure is significantly lower than the average total births in the 1970s, which stood at 733,655, representing a drop of 459,883 births or a 62.7% decrease.
| Year | Births | Year | Births |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | 719.1k | 2010 | 497.5k |
| 1980 | 742.4k | 2020 | 293.5k* |
| 1990 | 657.1k | 2021 | 273.8k* |
| 2000 | 385.0k |
Source: Human Fertility Database. *Measure estimated by Birthgap.org based on partial data from Derzhstat.
Birthgap Retirement Indicator (BRI)
By 2014, Ukraine's Birthgap Retirement Indicator (BRI) reached 29.6%, marking an increase of 3.3 percentage points from 2013. Over the five years leading up to 2014, the BRI has been trending downward, averaging 29.1%. Compared to the 1970s average of -22.4%, the current level stands approximately 52.0 percentage points higher. Ukraine holds the lowest BRI value both globally and within Europe, positioned last in rankings of 35 and 30 countries respectively.
| Year | BRI | Year | BRI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | -63.2% | 2010 | 30.3% |
| 1980 | 2.5% | 2020 | n/a |
| 1990 | 19.5% | 2021 | n/a |
| 2000 | 47.1% |
Source: Human Fertility Database.
