Ukraine
Based on the most recent published official birth records (and Birthgap harmonisation where noted).
Ukraine's fertility indicators continued their downward trends in 2021, with the total motherhood rate declining to its lowest level, reflecting a persistent demographic challenge. Meanwhile, some signs of change emerged in the birthgap generational indicator and childlessness rates, showing an upward shift from the previous year but remaining at historically low levels relative to global and European averages.
- The total motherhood rate fell by 2.2 percentage points from 2020 to 63.4%, marking a sustained decline from the 1970s baseline by about 40 percentage points, the lowest level both in Europe and globally.
- Average maternal age slightly increased to 25.7 years, remaining the lowest in Europe and the world, yet gradually rising compared to the last five years and the 1970s average.
- The birthgap generational indicator (TFG) rose by 2.8 percentage points to 44.0%, indicating increasing childlessness, though still below European and global averages.
- The total childlessness rate (TCR) increased by 2.2 percentage points to 36.6%, continuing a five-year upward trend but remaining the lowest in Europe, pointing to shifting family formation patterns.
In 2021, Ukraine exhibited one of the lowest fertility rates and youngest maternal ages in Europe, alongside a significant decline in total births.
- Lowest total fertility rate in Europe and globally
- Lowest average maternal age at birth in Europe and globally
- Rising childlessness but still lowest rates in Europe
- Total births down sharply from 1970s levels
- Shortest societal half-life globally and in Europe
Key fertility indicators — Ukraine
| Childlessness Rate (TCR) | 36.6% |
| Children per Mother (CPM) | 1.83 |
| Average Maternal Age (AMA) | 25.7 years |
| Birthgap Indicator (TFG) | 44.0% |
| TGI (great-grandchildren per 100 parents) | 18 |
Motherhood prevalence (TMR)
In 2021, the total motherhood prevalence rate in Ukraine stood at 63.4%, marking a decrease of 2.2 percentage points from the previous year. This downward trend has continued over the last five years, with an average TMR of 67.0% during 2017–2021. When compared to the 1970s average of 103.4%, the current rate is approximately 40 percentage points lower. Among all countries globally, Ukraine ranks lowest in TMR, positioned 38th out of 38.
Within Europe, it similarly holds the lowest rank, 31st among 31 countries.
| Year | TMR | Year | TMR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | 104.3% | 2010 | 72.9% |
| 1980 | 102.6% | 2020 | 65.6%* |
| 1990 | 99.3% | 2021 | 63.4%* |
| 2000 | 66.5% |
Source: Human Fertility Database. *Measure estimated by Birthgap.org based on partial data from Derzhstat.
Children per mother (CPM)
Ukraine's children per mother (CPM) stood at 1.83 in 2021, showing a slight decrease from 1.86 in 2020. The average CPM over the last five years is 1.87, reflecting a downward trend during this period. When compared to the 1970s average of 1.97, the current figure is approximately 0.15 lower.
| Year | CPM | Year | CPM |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | 2.02 | 2010 | 1.96 |
| 1980 | 1.89 | 2020 | 1.85* |
| 1990 | 1.86 | 2021 | 1.83* |
| 2000 | 1.68 |
Source: Human Fertility Database. *Measure estimated by Birthgap.org based on partial data from Derzhstat.
Average maternal age (AMA)
The average maternal age (AMA) at birth in Ukraine reached 25.7 years in 2021, showing a modest increase of 0.2 years from the previous year. Over the last five years, AMA has trended upward, averaging 25.4 years. This figure stands 2.5 years above the average recorded in the 1970s. Notably, Ukraine holds the lowest average maternal age globally, ranking 38th out of 38 countries. It also has the lowest average maternal age within the European region, placed 31st out of 31 countries.
| Year | BIRTH | Year | BIRTH |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | 23.58 | 2010 | 24.37 |
| 1980 | 22.80 | 2020 | 25.53* |
| 1990 | 22.34 | 2021 | 25.71* |
| 2000 | 22.89 |
Source: Human Fertility Database. *Measure estimated by Birthgap.org based on partial data from Derzhstat.
Birthgap Generational Indicator (TFG)
The Birthgap Generational Indicator (TFG) reached 44.0% in 2021, which corresponds to a total fertility rate of 1.16. This marks an increase of 2.8 percentage points compared to 2020. Childlessness has been on the rise over the last five years, with the average for 2017–2021 standing at 39.3%. Since the 1970s baseline of 2.0%, the current figure has risen by approximately 42.0 percentage points. The lowest recorded TFG occurred in the early 1970s (1970–1972), averaging close to zero. Ukraine holds the lowest TFG values both globally (38 out of 38) and within Europe (31 out of 31).
| Year | TFG | Year | TFG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | n/a | 2010 | 31.0% |
| 1980 | 6.4% | 2020 | 41.2%* |
| 1990 | 10.8% | 2021 | 44.0%* |
| 2000 | 46.1% |
Source: Human Fertility Database. *Measure estimated by Birthgap.org based on partial data from Derzhstat.
Societal Half-Life (SHL)
Ukraine’s SHL stands at 33.2 years years in 2021. It has decreased by 2.8 years compared with 2020. Over the past five years, SHL has been falling, averaging 38.4 years. Compared with the 1970s average (1224.9 years), SHL is now shorter by about 1191.7 years.
Globally, Ukraine has the shortest Societal Half-Life (ranked 38/38).Within Europe, Ukraine has the shortest SHL value (ranked 31/31).
Triple Generation Impact (TGI)
With this Birthgap (TFG) for every 100 people of fertility age in Ukraine, there would be 18 great-grandchildren, representing a -82.0% drop from the current generation.
Globally, Ukraine has the lowest TGI drop (ranked 38/38). Within Europe, Ukraine has the lowest TGI drop (ranked 31/31).
Birth trajectory
If the birth pattern from 2021 continues, the total number of births is projected to decline significantly over time without considering migration. By 2054, births would drop by 50%, falling from 273,772 in 2021 to 136,886. This downward trend would continue, with births decreasing by 75% around 2087, and ultimately reaching a 90% reduction by 2131, resulting in just 27,377 births.
Childlessness rate (TCR)
In 2021, Ukraine's total childlessness rate (TCR) reached 36.6%, marking a 2.2 percentage point increase from the previous year. Over the five years from 2017 to 2021, the TCR has been on the rise, averaging 33.0%. This current level stands significantly above the 1970s average of -3.4%, representing an increase of roughly 40 percentage points. Among global figures, Ukraine holds the lowest childlessness rate, placed 38th out of 38 countries. Similarly, within Europe, it ranks lowest at 31 out of 31 countries.
| Year | TCR | Year | TCR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | -4.3% | 2010 | 27.1% |
| 1980 | -2.6% | 2020 | 34.4%* |
| 1990 | 0.7% | 2021 | 36.6%* |
| 2000 | 33.5% |
Source: Human Fertility Database. *Measure estimated by Birthgap.org based on partial data from Derzhstat.
Total births
In 2021, the total number of births recorded in Ukraine was 273,772, marking a decrease of 19,685 compared to the previous year, 2020. The country has experienced a downward trend in total births over the past five years, with an average of 315,181 births annually during that period. When viewed against the average from the 1970s, which stood at 733,655, the current figures reveal a substantial drop of 459,883 births, equivalent to a 62.7% decline.
| Year | Births | Year | Births |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | 719.1k | 2010 | 497.5k |
| 1980 | 742.4k | 2020 | 293.5k* |
| 1990 | 657.1k | 2021 | 273.8k* |
| 2000 | 385.0k |
Source: Human Fertility Database. *Measure estimated by Birthgap.org based on partial data from Derzhstat.
Birthgap Retirement Indicator (BRI)
Ukraine’s Birthgap Retirement Indicator (BRI) stood at 29.6% in 2014, marking an increase of 3.3 percentage points from the previous year. Over the five-year span from 2010 to 2014, the BRI has shown a downward trend, averaging 29.1%. When compared to the 1970s average of -22.4%, the current value is notably higher by roughly 52 percentage points. Among all countries globally, Ukraine holds the lowest BRI value, placing it 35th out of 35. Within the European region, it also ranks lowest at 30 out of 30.
| Year | BRI | Year | BRI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | -63.2% | 2010 | 30.3% |
| 1980 | 2.5% | 2020 | n/a |
| 1990 | 19.5% | 2021 | n/a |
| 2000 | 47.1% |
Source: Human Fertility Database.