Poland
Based on the most recent published official birth records (and Birthgap harmonisation where noted).
In 2024, Poland continues to experience significant demographic challenges, with lifetime childlessness rising sharply to 47.4%, a notable increase from the previous year. This heightened childlessness is coupled with a deeper generational birthgap, which has increased to 47.5%, underscoring persistent low fertility trends and shifting family formation patterns.
- Total Maternal Rate fell by 3.4 percentage points to 52.6%, maintaining one of the lowest levels globally and in Europe.
- Completed parity mean eased slightly to 2.07 children per mother, reflecting a stable but below-replacement fertility pace.
- The average maternal age at childbirth increased marginally to 29.4 years, continuing a long-term trend of delayed childbearing.
- Despite a decrease in total births to about 252,000, Poland’s birth metrics remain among the lowest across European nations, highlighting ongoing demographic concerns.
In 2024, Poland's fertility rates remain low with continuing declines in births and high childlessness, reflecting persistent demographic challenges since the early 1990s.
- One of the lowest completed fertility rates globally and in Europe
- Ranks 5th highest in generational birthgap, signaling deep fertility decline
- Mean age at childbearing steadily rising, now above 29 years
- Childlessness among women ranks 3rd highest in Europe
- Societal half-life notably short, indicating rapid generational turnover
Key fertility indicators — Poland
| Childlessness Rate (TCR) | 47.4% |
| Birthgap Indicator (TFG) | 47.5% |
| Societal Half-Life (SHL) | 33.7 years |
| TGI (great-grandchildren per 100 parents) | 14 |
Motherhood prevalence (TMR)
In 2024, motherhood prevalence in Poland stood at 52.6%, marking a decrease of 3.4 percentage points from the previous year. The total motherhood rate (TMR) has shown a declining trend over the past five years, averaging 59.1% between 2020 and 2024. When compared to averages from the 1970s, which were 88.5%, current levels are about 35.9 percentage points lower. This places Poland among countries with some of the lowest TMR figures worldwide, ranking 34th out of 38, and similarly low within Europe, where it ranks 29th out of 31.
| Year | TMR | Year | TMR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | n/a | 2010 | 68.8% |
| 1980 | 90.1% | 2020 | 65.3% |
| 1990 | 86.9% | 2023 | 56.0% |
| 2000 | 62.5% | 2024 | 52.6% |
Source: Eurostat; Human Fertility Database.
Children per mother (CPM)
In 2024, the number of children per mother in Poland stands at 2.07, slightly lower than the 2.11 recorded in 2023, showing a small decline of 0.04. The five-year average indicates a relatively steady trend at 2.11. Compared to the 1970s average of 2.54, this figure has decreased by approximately 0.47. While Poland's global position places it 16th out of 38 countries, it holds 13th place among 31 European nations.
| Year | CPM | Year | CPM |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | n/a | 2010 | 1.99 |
| 1980 | 2.50 | 2020 | 2.12 |
| 1990 | 2.38 | 2023 | 2.11 |
| 2000 | 2.19 | 2024 | 2.07 |
Source: Eurostat; Human Fertility Database.
Average maternal age (AMA)
In 2024, the average maternal age in Poland stands at 29.36 years, marking a slight increase of 0.17 years from the previous year. The average maternal age has trended upward over the last five years, with a five-year average of 28.53 years. This figure is notably higher—by about 5.9 years—than the average maternal age recorded during the 1970s. Among a group of 38 countries worldwide, Poland holds the 28th position in terms of average maternal age, while within Europe it ranks 22nd out of 31 countries.
| Year | BIRTH | Year | BIRTH |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | n/a | 2010 | 26.44 |
| 1980 | 23.42 | 2020 | 27.84 |
| 1990 | 23.34 | 2023 | 29.19 |
| 2000 | 24.52 | 2024 | 29.36 |
Source: Eurostat; Human Fertility Database.
Birthgap Generational Indicator (TFG)
The Birthgap Generational Indicator (TFG) reached 47.5% in 2024, corresponding to a total fertility rate (TFR) of 1.09. This represents an increase of 4.6 percentage points from 2023. Childlessness has been on the rise over the past five years, with the average between 2020 and 2024 at 39.7%. Compared to the 1970s baseline of 0.0%, the current rate is approximately 47.5 percentage points higher. Since 1992, the country has experienced a continuous generational birth gap. The lowest TFG was observed in the early 1970s, averaging 0.0% between 1971 and 1979. On a global scale, it ranks 5th out of 38 nations, and within Europe, it holds the 3rd highest TFG level among 31 countries.
| Year | TFG | Year | TFG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | n/a | 2010 | 33.8% |
| 1980 | n/a | 2020 | 33.1% |
| 1990 | n/a | 2023 | 42.9% |
| 2000 | 34.0% | 2024 | 47.5% |
Source: Eurostat; Human Fertility Database.
Societal Half-Life (SHL)
In 2024, Poland’s Societal Half-Life (SHL) is 33.7 years. It has decreased by 4.9 years compared with 2023. Over the past five years, SHL has been falling, averaging 42.5 years. Compared with the 1970s average (223.5 years), SHL is now shorter by about 189.8 years.
Globally, Poland has one of the shortest SHL values (ranked 34/38).Within Europe, it has one of the shortest SHL values (ranked 29/31).
Triple Generation Impact (TGI)
With this Birthgap (TFG) for every 100 people of fertility age in Poland, there would be 14 great-grandchildren, representing a -86.0% drop from the current generation.
Globally, Poland has one of the highest TGI drops (ranked 5/38). Within Europe, it has one of the highest TGI drops (ranked 3/31).
Birth trajectory
Using the birth rates observed in 2024, total births are projected to decrease from 251,800 that year to 125,900 by 2058, marking a 50% decline. This downward trend continues, with births expected to drop by 75% in 2091 and ultimately fall by 90% to 25,180 in 2136, assuming no migration influences these numbers.
Childlessness rate (TCR)
Poland's lifetime childlessness rate (TCR) reached 47.4% in 2024, marking an increase of 3.4 percentage points from 2023. Over the past five years, this rate has shown an upward trend, averaging 40.9% between 2020 and 2024. When compared to the 1970s average of 11.5%, the current level is higher by approximately 35.9 percentage points. On a global scale, Poland ranks among the countries with the highest childlessness rates, placing 5th out of 38.
Within Europe, it holds the 3rd highest position based on this metric.
| Year | TCR | Year | TCR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | n/a | 2010 | 31.2% |
| 1980 | 9.9% | 2020 | 34.7% |
| 1990 | 13.1% | 2023 | 44.0% |
| 2000 | 37.5% | 2024 | 47.4% |
Source: Eurostat; Human Fertility Database.
Total births
In 2024, Poland recorded 251,800 total births, a decline of 20,541 from the previous year. Birth numbers have been on a downward trend over the last five years, averaging 302,934 annually. When compared to the 1970s average of 632,030 births, the current figures represent a significant reduction of 380,230 births, which is a 60.2% decrease.
| Year | Births | Year | Births |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | n/a | 2010 | 412.1k |
| 1980 | 692.7k | 2020 | 354.7k |
| 1990 | 548.7k | 2023 | 272.3k |
| 2000 | 379.0k | 2024 | 251.8k |
Source: Eurostat; Human Fertility Database.
Birthgap Retirement Indicator (BRI)
The Birthgap Retirement Indicator in Poland reached 50.9% in 2024, marking a significant increase of 5.9 percentage points from the previous year. Over the past five years, the BRI has shown an upward trend, averaging 36.6% between 2020 and 2024. This current level stands considerably higher than the 1970s average of -60.4%, representing a rise of about 111.4 percentage points. On the global stage, Poland holds the 8th position out of 35 countries for this metric, and within Europe, it ranks 5th among 30 countries, indicating one of the continent's highest BRI values.
| Year | BRI | Year | BRI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | n/a | 2010 | 29.2% |
| 1980 | -58.1% | 2020 | 22.2% |
| 1990 | -40.0% | 2023 | 45.1% |
| 2000 | 31.3% | 2024 | 50.9% |
Source: Eurostat; Human Fertility Database.
