Poland
Based on the most recent published official birth records (and Birthgap harmonisation where noted).
Poland's demographic indicators reveal a continued decline in traditional fertility measures alongside rising childlessness. The total mean reproductive rate dropped notably in 2024, reflecting a long-term downward trend that places Poland among the countries with the lowest fertility globally. Meanwhile, lifetime childlessness has increased substantially, now nearly half of women remain childless by the end of their reproductive years, signaling significant shifts in family formation patterns.
- The total mean reproductive rate (TMR) fell by 3.4 percentage points to 52.6% in 2024, continuing a decline from an average of 59.1% over 2020–2024 and far below 1970s levels.
- Lifetime childlessness rose sharply to 47.4%, up 3.4 percentage points from the prior year and substantially higher than the 11.5% observed in the 1970s.
- The generational birthgap indicator increased by 4.6 percentage points to 47.5%, indicating growing disparity between births and parental generation replacement levels.
- Average maternal age rose slightly to 29.4 years, continuing a steady increase over recent decades and now nearly 6 years higher than in the 1970s.
In 2024, Poland faces a continuing demographic decline with fertility and birth rates below European averages, alongside a high generational birthgap and rising childlessness.
- Total fertility rate low at 52.6%, ranked 29th of 31 in Europe
- Children per mother stable around 2.07, mid-range European ranking
- Mean age at childbearing rising to 29.4 years, older than average
- Childlessness rate high at 47.4%, third highest in Europe
- Societal half-life short, 33.7 years, among the shortest in Europe
Key fertility indicators — Poland
| Childlessness Rate (TCR) | 47.4% |
| Birthgap Indicator (TFG) | 47.5% |
| Societal Half-Life (SHL) | 33.7 years |
| TGI (great-grandchildren per 100 parents) | 14 |
Motherhood prevalence (TMR)
Completed fertility among mothers in Poland stands at 52.6% as of 2024, marking a decline of 3.4 percentage points from the previous year. The total motherhood rate has been on a downward trend over the past five years, averaging 59.1% between 2020 and 2024. When compared to the 1970s average of 88.5%, the current rate is significantly lower by approximately 35.9 percentage points. On the global scale, Poland ranks toward the bottom in terms of motherhood prevalence, placed 34th out of 38 countries.
Within Europe, it similarly holds one of the lowest TMR standings, positioned 29th among 31 countries.
| Year | TMR | Year | TMR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | n/a | 2010 | 68.8% |
| 1980 | 90.1% | 2020 | 65.3% |
| 1990 | 86.9% | 2023 | 56.0% |
| 2000 | 62.5% | 2024 | 52.6% |
Source: Eurostat; Human Fertility Database.
Children per mother (CPM)
In 2024, the number of children per mother in Poland stands at 2.07, showing a slight decline of 0.04 from the previous year. Over the last five years, this metric has remained fairly steady, with an average of 2.11. When compared to the 1970s average of 2.54, the current figure is approximately 0.47 lower. Among 38 countries globally, Poland holds the 16th position, while in Europe, it ranks 13th out of 31.
| Year | CPM | Year | CPM |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | n/a | 2010 | 1.99 |
| 1980 | 2.50 | 2020 | 2.12 |
| 1990 | 2.38 | 2023 | 2.11 |
| 2000 | 2.19 | 2024 | 2.07 |
Source: Eurostat; Human Fertility Database.
Average maternal age (AMA)
In 2024, the average maternal age in Poland reached 29.36 years, marking a small increase of 0.17 years from 29.19 in 2023. This upward trend continues a five-year pattern, where the average maternal age has climbed to 28.53 years. Since the 1970s, the mean age at childbirth has risen by nearly 6 years, moving from 23.42 to the current level. These figures place Poland at 28th among 38 countries globally and 22nd among 31 European countries in terms of average maternal age.
| Year | BIRTH | Year | BIRTH |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | n/a | 2010 | 26.44 |
| 1980 | 23.42 | 2020 | 27.84 |
| 1990 | 23.34 | 2023 | 29.19 |
| 2000 | 24.52 | 2024 | 29.36 |
Source: Eurostat; Human Fertility Database.
Birthgap Generational Indicator (TFG)
By 2024, the Birthgap Generational Indicator (TFG) in Poland reached 47.5%, corresponding to a total fertility rate (TFR) of 1.09. This marks an increase of 4.6 percentage points from 2023. Childlessness has been on the rise over the last five years, with the average between 2020 and 2024 at 39.7%. Compared to the 1970s baseline of 0.0%, this rate is higher by approximately 47.5 percentage points. Poland has experienced a continuous generational birthgap since 1992. The lowest TFG recorded was in the early 1970s (1971–1979), which averaged 0.0%. On a global scale, Poland ranks 5th out of 38 countries for the highest TFG levels, and within Europe, it holds the 3rd highest position among 31 countries.
| Year | TFG | Year | TFG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | n/a | 2010 | 33.8% |
| 1980 | n/a | 2020 | 33.1% |
| 1990 | n/a | 2023 | 42.9% |
| 2000 | 34.0% | 2024 | 47.5% |
Source: Eurostat; Human Fertility Database.
Societal Half-Life (SHL)
In 2024, Poland’s Societal Half-Life (SHL) is 33.7 years. It has decreased by 4.9 years compared with 2023. Over the past five years, SHL has been falling, averaging 42.5 years. Compared with the 1970s average (223.5 years), SHL is now shorter by about 189.8 years.
Globally, Poland has one of the shortest SHL values (ranked 34/38).Within Europe, it has one of the shortest SHL values (ranked 29/31).
Triple Generation Impact (TGI)
With this Birthgap (TFG) for every 100 people of fertility age in Poland, there would be 14 great-grandchildren, representing a -86.0% drop from the current generation.
Globally, Poland has one of the highest TGI drops (ranked 5/38). Within Europe, it has one of the highest TGI drops (ranked 3/31).
Birth trajectory
Following the birth trend recorded in 2024, the number of births is projected to decline from 251,800 that year to roughly 125,900 by 2058, marking a 50% decrease. This downward trajectory continues, with births expected to drop by 75% around 2091. By 2136, the total births could shrink by as much as 90%, reaching approximately 25,180, assuming no migration influences this pattern.
Childlessness rate (TCR)
Poland's lifetime childlessness rate (TCR) reached 47.4% in 2024, marking an increase of 3.4 percentage points from 2023. Over the past five years, this rate has shown an upward trend, averaging 40.9% between 2020 and 2024. When compared to the 1970s average of 11.5%, the current rate is about 35.9 percentage points higher. On the global stage, Poland ranks fifth out of 38 countries for childlessness, while within Europe, it holds the third-highest position among 31 countries.
| Year | TCR | Year | TCR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | n/a | 2010 | 31.2% |
| 1980 | 9.9% | 2020 | 34.7% |
| 1990 | 13.1% | 2023 | 44.0% |
| 2000 | 37.5% | 2024 | 47.4% |
Source: Eurostat; Human Fertility Database.
Total births
In 2024, Poland recorded 251,800 total births, marking a decrease of 20,541 from the previous year. The trend over the last five years shows a decline, with an average annual birth count of 302,934. When compared to the 1970s average of 632,030 births, the current figure represents a drop of 380,230 births, which is a 60.2% reduction.
| Year | Births | Year | Births |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | n/a | 2010 | 412.1k |
| 1980 | 692.7k | 2020 | 354.7k |
| 1990 | 548.7k | 2023 | 272.3k |
| 2000 | 379.0k | 2024 | 251.8k |
Source: Eurostat; Human Fertility Database.
Birthgap Retirement Indicator (BRI)
The Birthgap Retirement Indicator (BRI) for Poland reached 50.9% in 2024, marking a significant increase of 5.9 percentage points from the previous year. Over the past five years, the BRI has shown a consistent upward trend, averaging 36.6% between 2020 and 2024. This figure is considerably higher than the average from the 1970s, which stood at -60.4%, representing a rise of approximately 111.4 percentage points. On a global scale, Poland holds the 8th position among 35 countries, while within Europe, it ranks 5th out of 30, indicating one of the continent's highest BRI values.
| Year | BRI | Year | BRI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | n/a | 2010 | 29.2% |
| 1980 | -58.1% | 2020 | 22.2% |
| 1990 | -40.0% | 2023 | 45.1% |
| 2000 | 31.3% | 2024 | 50.9% |
Source: Eurostat; Human Fertility Database.
