Japan
Based on the most recent published official birth records (and Birthgap harmonisation where noted).
Japan's demographic figures for 2024 reveal a slight decline in total maternal rate and births alongside a modest rise in average maternal age and lifetime childlessness rate. The total fertility gap remains notably high, reflecting lingering generational birth disparities, while family size trends show a slight increase in one- and two-child households.
- Total maternal rate decreased from 56.6% in 2023 to 54.9% in 2024, continuing a downward trend over recent years.
- Total births fell by 40,988 to 686,173, reinforcing Japan's ongoing population aging concerns.
- Average maternal age climbed slightly to 30.9 years, now over five years higher than in the 1970s, indicating delayed childbearing.
- Lifetime childlessness rose to 45.1%, placing Japan among countries with the highest rates of childless women globally.
In 2024, Japan shows a continuation of long-term demographic shifts including low fertility, rising childlessness, and increasing maternal age.
- Total maternal rate among lowest globally, ranked 32/38 countries
- Children per mother stable near global average, ranked 17/38
- Average maternal age rising, ranked 11/38 globally
- High childlessness rate and generational birthgap, ranked 7/38 globally
- Strong birth rate increase relative to past, ranked 2/35 globally
Key fertility indicators — Japan
| Total Maternal Rate (TMR) | 54.9% |
| Childlessness Rate (TCR) | 45.1% |
| Average Maternal Age (AMA) | 30.9 years |
| TGI (great-grandchildren per 100 parents) | 17 |
| Total births (latest year) | 686,173 |
Motherhood prevalence (TMR)
In 2024, the total maternal rate (TMR) in Japan stands at 54.9%, showing a slight decrease of 1.7 percentage points compared to 2023. The TMR has been on a downward trend over the last five years, with the average from 2020 to 2024 at 58.9%. This marks a significant decline from the 1970s average of 86.9%, lower by approximately 32.0 percentage points. Among 38 countries globally, Japan ranks 32nd, reflecting one of the lowest TMR levels worldwide.
| Year | TMR | Year | TMR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | 94.8% | 2010 | 68.0% |
| 1980 | 78.1% | 2020 | 63.2% |
| 1990 | 66.5% | 2023 | 56.6% |
| 2000 | 66.2% | 2024 | 54.9%* |
Source: Human Fertility Database. *Measure estimated by Birthgap.org based on partial data from Statistics Bueau of Japan.
Children per mother (CPM)
In 2024, the children per mother (CPM) in Japan stands at 2.10, showing a slight decrease of 0.02 from the previous year. Over the last five years, this figure has held relatively steady, averaging 2.11. When compared to the 1970s average of 2.27, the current CPM is approximately 0.18 lower. Among 38 countries globally, Japan ranks 17th in this metric.
| Year | CPM | Year | CPM |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | 2.26 | 2010 | 2.03 |
| 1980 | 2.22 | 2020 | 2.10 |
| 1990 | 2.32 | 2023 | 2.12 |
| 2000 | 2.06 | 2024 | 2.10* |
Source: Human Fertility Database. *Measure estimated by Birthgap.org based on partial data from Statistics Bueau of Japan.
Average maternal age (AMA)
The average maternal age (AMA) at birth reached 30.9 years in 2024, marking a small increase of 0.2 years from the previous year. AMA has shown a steady upward trend over the last five years, with a five-year average of 30.6 years. This figure surpasses the 1970s average by 5.1 years, reflecting a significant rise over several decades.
| Year | BIRTH | Year | BIRTH |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | 25.81 | 2010 | 29.27 |
| 1980 | 26.07 | 2020 | 30.29 |
| 1990 | 27.15 | 2023 | 30.71 |
| 2000 | 28.03 | 2024 | 30.89* |
Source: Human Fertility Database. *Measure estimated by Birthgap.org based on partial data from Statistics Bueau of Japan.
Birthgap Generational Indicator (TFG)
In 2024, Japan's Birthgap Generational Indicator (TFG) stands at 44.4%, corresponding to a total fertility rate (TFR) of 1.15. This marks an increase of 2.2 percentage points from 2023. Over the past five years (2020–2024), the TFG has trended upward, averaging 39.9%. Comparing to the 1970s average of 6.2%, the current value is about 38.2 percentage points higher. A generational birthgap has been present continuously since 1974. The lowest TFG was recorded during the early 1970s (1970–1973) at 0.0%. Among 38 countries globally, Japan ranks seventh in terms of TFG levels.
| Year | TFG | Year | TFG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | n/a | 2010 | 33.3% |
| 1980 | 16.2% | 2020 | 36.0% |
| 1990 | 25.4% | 2023 | 42.2% |
| 2000 | 34.2% | 2024 | 44.4%* |
Source: Human Fertility Database. *Measure estimated by Birthgap.org based on partial data from Statistics Bueau of Japan.
Societal Half-Life (SHL)
Japan’s SHL stands at 38.8 years years in 2024. It has decreased by 2.5 years compared with 2023. Over the past five years, SHL has been falling, averaging 44.7 years. Compared with the 1970s average (492.7 years), SHL is now shorter by about 453.9 years.
Globally, Japan ranks 30 out of 38 countries.
Triple Generation Impact (TGI)
With this Birthgap (TFG) for every 100 people of fertility age in Japan, there would be 17 great-grandchildren, representing a -83.0% drop from the current generation.
Globally, Japan has one of the highest TGI drops (ranked 7/38).
Birth trajectory
Using the birth pattern observed in 2024, the total number of births is projected to decrease significantly over time. By 2063, births are expected to drop from 686,173 to about 343,086, representing a 50% decline. Looking further ahead, by 2153, the number could fall even more dramatically to approximately 68,617, which is a 90% decrease from the 2024 level, assuming no migration impacts.
Childlessness rate (TCR)
The lifetime childlessness rate (TCR) in Japan reached 45.1% in 2024, marking a slight increase of 1.7 percentage points from 2023. This rate has been on an upward trend over the last five years, with the 2020–2024 average at 41.1%. When compared to the 1970s average of 13.1%, the current level is approximately 32.0 percentage points higher. Among 38 countries worldwide, Japan ranks seventh in terms of having one of the highest childlessness rates.
| Year | TCR | Year | TCR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | 5.2% | 2010 | 32.0% |
| 1980 | 21.9% | 2020 | 36.8% |
| 1990 | 33.5% | 2023 | 43.4% |
| 2000 | 33.8% | 2024 | 45.1%* |
Source: Human Fertility Database. *Measure estimated by Birthgap.org based on partial data from Statistics Bueau of Japan.
Total births
Japan saw 686,173 total births in 2024, which is 40,988 fewer than in 2023. The number of births has been declining over the past five years, with an average of 767,455 annually. When contrasted with the 1970s average of 1,896,787 births, the current figure represents a decrease of 1,210,614 births, or 63.8% less.
| Year | Births | Year | Births |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | 1.94M | 2010 | 1.07M |
| 1980 | 1.58M | 2020 | 841.1k |
| 1990 | 1.22M | 2023 | 727.2k |
| 2000 | 1.19M | 2024 | 686.2k* |
Source: Human Fertility Database. *Measure estimated by Birthgap.org based on partial data from Statistics Bueau of Japan.
Birthgap Retirement Indicator (BRI)
The Birthgap Retirement Indicator (BRI) in Japan reached 65.4% in 2024, marking an increase of 2.4 percentage points from 2023. Over the past five years, the indicator has been on an upward trend, averaging 59.6% from 2020 to 2024. This current level is significantly above the 1970s average of -56.7%, representing a rise of approximately 122.1 percentage points. Among 35 countries globally, Japan stands out with one of the highest BRI values, ranking second overall.
| Year | BRI | Year | BRI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | -103.9% | 2010 | 30.7% |
| 1980 | -6.2% | 2020 | 53.8% |
| 1990 | 20.3% | 2023 | 63.0% |
| 2000 | 48.0% | 2024 | 65.4%* |
Source: Human Fertility Database. *Measure estimated by Birthgap.org based on partial data from Statistics Bueau of Japan.
