Japan
Based on the most recent published official birth records (and Birthgap harmonisation where noted).
Japan's total maternal rate has declined slightly to 54.9% in 2024, continuing a longer-term downward trend from the 1970s when it was near 87%. At the same time, the lifetime childlessness rate has increased to 45.1%, one of the highest globally, reflecting deep demographic shifts in family formation and fertility behaviors.
- Average maternal age at birth rose slightly to 30.9 years, continuing a steady increase over recent decades.
- Total fertility gap (TFG) increased modestly to 44.4%, indicating a sustained gap between children's generational replacement and actual births.
- Total births fell by just over 40,000 from 2023, falling below 700,000, highlighting ongoing population aging and lower birth rates.
In 2024, Japan's demographic trends show low maternal rate and fertility levels with a rising average maternal age and increased childlessness.
- Total maternal rate near global bottom, ranked 32/38 countries
- Average maternal age among oldest globally, ranked 11/38
- High fertility gap with one of the highest generational declines, ranked 7/38
- Elevated lifetime childlessness, also ranked 7/38
- Birth recovery index remarkably high, ranking 2/35 worldwide
Key fertility indicators — Japan
| Total Maternal Rate (TMR) | 54.9% |
| Childlessness Rate (TCR) | 45.1% |
| Average Maternal Age (AMA) | 30.9 years |
| TGI (great-grandchildren per 100 parents) | 17 |
| Total births (latest year) | 686,173 |
Motherhood prevalence (TMR)
In 2024, the total maternal rate (TMR) in Japan stands at 54.9%, showing a slight decrease of 1.7 percentage points from 2023. The TMR has been on a downward trend over the last five years, with an average of 58.9% from 2020 to 2024. When compared to the 1970s average of 86.9%, the current rate is approximately 32.0 percentage points lower. This level places Japan among the countries with the lowest TMR worldwide, ranking 32nd out of 38.
| Year | TMR | Year | TMR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | 94.8% | 2010 | 68.0% |
| 1980 | 78.1% | 2020 | 63.2% |
| 1990 | 66.5% | 2023 | 56.6% |
| 2000 | 66.2% | 2024 | 54.9%* |
Source: Human Fertility Database. *Measure estimated by Birthgap.org based on partial data from Statistics Bueau of Japan.
Children per mother (CPM)
In 2024, the number of children per mother in Japan stands at 2.10, showing a slight decrease of 0.02 from the previous year. Over the last five years, the average CPM has been steady at around 2.11. This figure is approximately 0.18 less than the average observed during the 1970s, which was 2.27. When considered among 38 countries worldwide, Japan holds the 17th position in this demographic measure.
| Year | CPM | Year | CPM |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | 2.26 | 2010 | 2.03 |
| 1980 | 2.22 | 2020 | 2.10 |
| 1990 | 2.32 | 2023 | 2.12 |
| 2000 | 2.06 | 2024 | 2.10* |
Source: Human Fertility Database. *Measure estimated by Birthgap.org based on partial data from Statistics Bueau of Japan.
Average maternal age (AMA)
The average maternal age at birth reached 30.9 years in 2024, marking a small increase of 0.2 years from the previous year. Throughout the last five years, this average has been on the rise, maintaining a five-year average of 30.6 years. This figure is notably 5.1 years greater than the average observed during the 1970s. Japan currently holds the 11th position among 38 countries worldwide in terms of average maternal age.
| Year | BIRTH | Year | BIRTH |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | 25.81 | 2010 | 29.27 |
| 1980 | 26.07 | 2020 | 30.29 |
| 1990 | 27.15 | 2023 | 30.71 |
| 2000 | 28.03 | 2024 | 30.89* |
Source: Human Fertility Database. *Measure estimated by Birthgap.org based on partial data from Statistics Bueau of Japan.
Birthgap Generational Indicator (TFG)
In 2024, Japan's Birthgap Generational Indicator (TFG) stands at 44.4%, corresponding to a total fertility rate (TFR) of 1.15. This reflects an increase of 2.2 percentage points compared to 2023. Over the five-year period from 2020 to 2024, the TFG has shown an upward trend, averaging 39.9%. When compared to the 1970s average of 6.2%, the current level is higher by about 38.2 percentage points. The country has experienced a continuous generational birthgap since 1974. The lowest recorded TFG occurred during 1970–1973, at 0.0%. On the global scale, Japan’s TFG ranks seventh out of 38 countries.
| Year | TFG | Year | TFG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | n/a | 2010 | 33.3% |
| 1980 | 16.2% | 2020 | 36.0% |
| 1990 | 25.4% | 2023 | 42.2% |
| 2000 | 34.2% | 2024 | 44.4%* |
Source: Human Fertility Database. *Measure estimated by Birthgap.org based on partial data from Statistics Bueau of Japan.
Societal Half-Life (SHL)
Japan’s SHL stands at 38.8 years years in 2024. It has decreased by 2.5 years compared with 2023. Over the past five years, SHL has been falling, averaging 44.7 years. Compared with the 1970s average (492.7 years), SHL is now shorter by about 453.9 years.
Globally, Japan ranks 30 out of 38 countries.
Triple Generation Impact (TGI)
With this Birthgap (TFG) for every 100 people of fertility age in Japan, there would be 17 great-grandchildren, representing a -83.0% drop from the current generation.
Globally, Japan has one of the highest TGI drops (ranked 7/38).
Birth trajectory
The birth pattern observed in 2024 indicates a substantial decline over the next century. Starting from 686,173 births in 2024, the number is projected to drop by half to 343,086 by 2063. This downward trend continues, with total births expected to decrease by 75% by 2102 and reach a 90% reduction, falling to 68,617, by 2153, assuming migration is not factored in.
Childlessness rate (TCR)
In 2024, the lifetime childlessness rate in Japan reached 45.1%, marking a slight increase of 1.7 percentage points from 2023. The trend over the last five years shows a steady rise, with the average rate from 2020 to 2024 at 41.1%. This marks a significant increase when compared to the 1970s average of 13.1%, reflecting a jump of roughly 32.0 percentage points. Among global figures, Japan stands out with one of the highest childlessness rates, positioned 7th out of 38 countries.
| Year | TCR | Year | TCR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | 5.2% | 2010 | 32.0% |
| 1980 | 21.9% | 2020 | 36.8% |
| 1990 | 33.5% | 2023 | 43.4% |
| 2000 | 33.8% | 2024 | 45.1%* |
Source: Human Fertility Database. *Measure estimated by Birthgap.org based on partial data from Statistics Bueau of Japan.
Total births
The total number of births in Japan for 2024 was 686,173, marking a decrease of 40,988 from the previous year, 2023. Looking at the last five years, the annual average has been declining, settling at 767,455 births. When compared to the average in the 1970s, which stood at 1,896,787, this current figure represents a significant drop of 1,210,614 births, equivalent to a 63.8% reduction.
| Year | Births | Year | Births |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | 1.94M | 2010 | 1.07M |
| 1980 | 1.58M | 2020 | 841.1k |
| 1990 | 1.22M | 2023 | 727.2k |
| 2000 | 1.19M | 2024 | 686.2k* |
Source: Human Fertility Database. *Measure estimated by Birthgap.org based on partial data from Statistics Bueau of Japan.
Birthgap Retirement Indicator (BRI)
In 2024, Japan's Birthgap Retirement Indicator (BRI) stands at 0.6535, marking an increase of 0.0238 from the previous year. The indicator has shown an upward trend over the past five years, averaging 0.5963 between 2020 and 2024. When compared to the average BRI of -0.5670 from the 1970s, the current value is significantly higher by approximately 1.221 points. This places Japan among the countries with the highest BRI readings globally.
| Year | BRI | Year | BRI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | -103.9% | 2010 | 30.7% |
| 1980 | -6.2% | 2020 | 53.8% |
| 1990 | 20.3% | 2023 | 63.0% |
| 2000 | 48.0% | 2024 | 65.4%* |
Source: Human Fertility Database. *Measure estimated by Birthgap.org based on partial data from Statistics Bueau of Japan.
