Estonia
Based on the most recent published official birth records (and Birthgap harmonisation where noted).
Estonia experienced a notable rise in lifetime childlessness in 2024, reaching 48.1%, the highest in Europe and among the highest globally, indicating a persistent trend of fewer individuals having children. Despite this, the Birthgap Generational Indicator showed a strong increase, suggesting shifting generational fertility patterns. Meanwhile, the total maternal rate declined, reinforcing Estonia's position at the bottom of European fertility metrics.
- Total maternal rate fell by 3.7 percentage points to 51.9%, the lowest in Europe.
- Lifetime childlessness increased by 3.7 percentage points, reaching 48.1%, the highest among 31 European countries.
- The Birthgap Generational Indicator rose sharply by 5.9 percentage points to 43.0%, reflecting a recent shift in fertility timing or cohort patterns.
- Average maternal age dropped by 0.7 years to 28.9, interrupting a recent upward trend.
In 2024, Estonia shows low maternal rates and high childlessness, with distinct demographic shifts shaping its future population dynamics.
- Lowest total maternal rate in Europe, ranked 31/31
- Highest childlessness rate in Europe, ranked 1/31
- Above-average children per mother (2.27) but declining
- Mean age at childbearing slightly below European average
- One of Europe's highest Birthgap generational drops, ranked 5/31
Key fertility indicators — Estonia
| Total Maternal Rate (TMR) | 51.9% |
| Childlessness Rate (TCR) | 48.1% |
| Children per Mother (CPM) | 2.27 |
| Birthgap Indicator (TFG) | 43.0% |
| Societal Half-Life (SHL) | 38.1 years |
| TGI (great-grandchildren per 100 parents) | 19 |
Motherhood prevalence (TMR)
In 2024, Estonia's total maternal rate (TMR) stands at 51.9%, showing a decrease of 3.7 percentage points from 2023. Over the five years from 2020 to 2024, the TMR has been trending downward, averaging 59.0%. When compared to the 1970s average of 102.8%, the current rate is about 50.9 percentage points lower. Among global figures, Estonia ranks 36th out of 38 countries for TMR, placing it near the bottom. Within Europe specifically, it holds the lowest position, ranking 31st out of 31 countries.
| Year | TMR | Year | TMR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | 109.8% | 2010 | 72.2% |
| 1980 | 101.0% | 2020 | 63.1% |
| 1990 | 97.5% | 2023 | 55.6% |
| 2000 | 65.7% | 2024 | 51.9%* |
Source: Eurostat; Human Fertility Database. *Measure estimated by Birthgap.org based on partial data from Statistics Estonia.
Children per mother (CPM)
Estonia's children per mother (CPM) stood at 2.27 in 2024, showing a slight decrease of 0.07 from the previous year. Over the last five years, the average CPM has remained fairly steady at 2.39. When compared to the 1970s average of 2.04, the current figure is approximately 0.23 higher. Among 38 countries globally, Estonia holds the 30th position, while in Europe, it ranks 24th out of 31.
| Year | CPM | Year | CPM |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | 1.99 | 2010 | 2.38 |
| 1980 | 2.01 | 2020 | 2.48 |
| 1990 | 2.10 | 2023 | 2.34 |
| 2000 | 2.06 | 2024 | 2.27* |
Source: Eurostat; Human Fertility Database. *Measure estimated by Birthgap.org based on partial data from Statistics Estonia.
Average maternal age (AMA)
The average maternal age in Estonia stands at 28.9 years in 2024, marking a decrease of 0.7 years from 2023. Over the last five years, the mean age has generally been on the rise, with an average of 29.3 years during this period. This figure represents an increase of 5.2 years compared to the 1970s average. While globally Estonia is positioned 30th out of 38 countries, it ranks 24th among 31 European nations.
| Year | BIRTH | Year | BIRTH |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | 24.13 | 2010 | 26.28 |
| 1980 | 23.17 | 2020 | 29.07 |
| 1990 | 22.73 | 2023 | 29.60 |
| 2000 | 23.95 | 2024 | 28.90* |
Source: Eurostat; Human Fertility Database. *Measure estimated by Birthgap.org based on partial data from Statistics Estonia.
Birthgap Generational Indicator (TFG)
The Birthgap Generational Indicator (TFG) reached 43.0% in 2024, corresponding to a total fertility rate of 1.18. This marks a significant increase of 5.9 percentage points compared to 2023. Over the past five years, from 2020 to 2024, the TFG has shown an upward trend, averaging 31.7%. When compared to the 1970s average of 0.8%, the current value is higher by approximately 42.2 percentage points. The lowest TFG values were observed in the early 1970s (1970–1974), averaging close to zero. On the global stage, Estonia is ranked 8th among 38 countries, and within Europe, it holds one of the top positions at 5th out of 31.
| Year | TFG | Year | TFG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | n/a | 2010 | 16.9% |
| 1980 | 1.9% | 2020 | 24.6% |
| 1990 | 1.0% | 2023 | 37.1% |
| 2000 | 34.5% | 2024 | 43.0%* |
Source: Eurostat; Human Fertility Database. *Measure estimated by Birthgap.org based on partial data from Statistics Estonia.
Societal Half-Life (SHL)
In 2024, Estonia’s Societal Half-Life (SHL) is 38.1 years. It has decreased by 9.1 years compared with 2023. Over the past five years, SHL has been falling, averaging 60.7 years. Compared with the 1970s average (1234.4 years), SHL is now shorter by about 1196.3 years.
Globally, Estonia has one of the shortest SHL values (ranked 32/38).Within Europe, it has one of the shortest SHL values (ranked 27/31).
Triple Generation Impact (TGI)
With this Birthgap (TFG) for every 100 people of fertility age in Estonia, there would be 19 great-grandchildren, representing a -81.0% drop from the current generation.
Globally, Estonia ranks 8 out of 38 countries. Within Europe, it has one of the highest TGI drops (ranked 5/31).
Birth trajectory
According to the birth trajectory for 2024, the number of births is projected to decline significantly over the coming decades. Starting from 9,690 births in 2024, this figure is expected to drop by 50% to 4,845 by the year 2062. The decline continues progressively, with births decreasing by 75% by 2100, and ultimately falling by 90% to 969 births by 2151, assuming migration does not impact these totals.
Childlessness rate (TCR)
In 2024, the lifetime childlessness rate (TCR) in Estonia reached 48.1%, marking an increase of 3.7 percentage points from the previous year. The trend over the last five years shows a consistent rise, with the 2020–2024 average at 41.0%. This rate is significantly higher than the 1970s average of -2.8%, exceeding it by approximately 50.9 percentage points. Estonia ranks among the top globally with one of the highest childlessness rates, placed 3rd out of 38 countries, and holds the highest position within Europe, ranking 1st out of 31.
| Year | TCR | Year | TCR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | -9.8% | 2010 | 27.8% |
| 1980 | -1.0% | 2020 | 36.9% |
| 1990 | 2.5% | 2023 | 44.4% |
| 2000 | 34.3% | 2024 | 48.1%* |
Source: Eurostat; Human Fertility Database. *Measure estimated by Birthgap.org based on partial data from Statistics Estonia.
Total births
In 2024, Estonia recorded 9,690 total births, which represents a decline of 1,254 from the previous year, 2023. The trend over the last five years has been downward, with an average annual birth count of 11,743. When compared to the average from the 1970s, which stood at 21,723, the total number of births has decreased significantly by 12,033, marking a 55.4% reduction.
| Year | Births | Year | Births |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | 21.6k | 2010 | 15.8k |
| 1980 | 22.2k | 2020 | 13.2k |
| 1990 | 22.3k | 2023 | 10.9k |
| 2000 | 13.1k | 2024 | 9,690* |
Source: Eurostat; Human Fertility Database. *Measure estimated by Birthgap.org based on partial data from Statistics Estonia.
Birthgap Retirement Indicator (BRI)
Estonia's Birthgap Retirement Indicator (BRI) reached 47.6% in 2024, showing a significant rise of 5.7 percentage points from the previous year. Over the past five years (2020–2024), the BRI has been on an upward trend, averaging 36.2%. This figure is substantially higher than the 1970s average of -31.2%, marking an increase of roughly 78.8 percentage points. On a global scale, Estonia holds the 10th position among 35 countries.
Within Europe, it ranks 7th out of 30, reflecting one of the region's highest BRI values.
| Year | BRI | Year | BRI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | -77.3% | 2010 | 17.3% |
| 1980 | -9.0% | 2020 | 26.1% |
| 1990 | -6.0% | 2023 | 41.9% |
| 2000 | 34.3% | 2024 | 47.6%* |
Source: Eurostat; Human Fertility Database. *Measure estimated by Birthgap.org based on partial data from Statistics Estonia.
