Estonia
Based on the most recent published official birth records (and Birthgap harmonisation where noted).
Estonia’s demographic trends in 2024 reveal a continued decline in fertility rates, with the total maternal rate dropping to one of the lowest globally and in Europe. Concurrently, lifetime childlessness has increased sharply, reaching the highest level in Europe. Notably, the average number of children per mother is slightly above European norms but has decreased since last year.
- Total maternal rate fell by 3.7 percentage points to 51.9%, maintaining Estonia’s position as Europe’s lowest.
- Lifetime childlessness rose 3.7 percentage points to 48.1%, the highest rate among European countries and third highest globally.
- Children per mother declined slightly to 2.27 but remain above the European average, showing relative stability over five years.
- Mean maternal age decreased by 0.7 years to 28.9, reversing a recent upward trend but still above 1970s levels by over five years.
In 2024, Estonia faces demographic challenges with low maternal rates and high childlessness, resulting in a rapidly aging population and shrinking birth numbers.
- Lowest total maternal rate in Europe (lowest of 31 countries)
- High children per mother (2.27), above European average but declining
- Mean age at childbearing decreased to 28.9 years, below European average
- Highest childlessness rate in Europe, ranking 1st out of 31
- Births projected to decline by 50% by 2062 and 90% by 2151
Key fertility indicators — Estonia
| Total Maternal Rate (TMR) | 51.9% |
| Childlessness Rate (TCR) | 48.1% |
| Children per Mother (CPM) | 2.27 |
| Birthgap Indicator (TFG) | 43.0% |
| Societal Half-Life (SHL) | 38.1 years |
| TGI (great-grandchildren per 100 parents) | 19 |
Motherhood prevalence (TMR)
The total maternal rate (TMR) in Estonia stands at 51.9% in 2024, showing a decrease of 3.7 percentage points from 2023. Over the last five years (2020–2024), the TMR has been on a downward trend, averaging 59.0%. This current figure is significantly lower than the average observed in the 1970s, which was 102.8%, a difference of about 50.9 percentage points. Estonia's TMR ranks among the lowest worldwide, placed 36th out of 38 countries.
Within Europe, it holds the lowest position, ranking 31st out of 31 nations.
| Year | TMR | Year | TMR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | 109.8% | 2010 | 72.2% |
| 1980 | 101.0% | 2020 | 63.1% |
| 1990 | 97.5% | 2023 | 55.6% |
| 2000 | 65.7% | 2024 | 51.9%* |
Source: Eurostat; Human Fertility Database. *Measure estimated by Birthgap.org based on partial data from Statistics Estonia.
Children per mother (CPM)
Estonia's children per mother (CPM) stood at 2.27 in 2024, marking a slight decrease of 0.07 from the previous year. Over the last five years, the CPM has remained relatively steady, averaging 2.39. This figure exceeds the 1970s average of 2.04 by approximately 0.23. On a global scale, Estonia ranks 30th among 38 countries, while within Europe, it holds the 24th position out of 31.
| Year | CPM | Year | CPM |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | 1.99 | 2010 | 2.38 |
| 1980 | 2.01 | 2020 | 2.48 |
| 1990 | 2.10 | 2023 | 2.34 |
| 2000 | 2.06 | 2024 | 2.27* |
Source: Eurostat; Human Fertility Database. *Measure estimated by Birthgap.org based on partial data from Statistics Estonia.
Average maternal age (AMA)
The average maternal age in Estonia reached 28.9 years in 2024, marking a decrease of 0.7 years from 2023. While the five-year average AMA has shown an upward trend, resting at 29.3 years, this figure is currently 5.2 years above the average recorded during the 1970s.
Globally, Estonia holds the 30th position out of 38 countries for this metric, and within Europe, it ranks 24th among 31 nations.
| Year | BIRTH | Year | BIRTH |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | 24.13 | 2010 | 26.28 |
| 1980 | 23.17 | 2020 | 29.07 |
| 1990 | 22.73 | 2023 | 29.60 |
| 2000 | 23.95 | 2024 | 28.90* |
Source: Eurostat; Human Fertility Database. *Measure estimated by Birthgap.org based on partial data from Statistics Estonia.
Birthgap Generational Indicator (TFG)
The Birthgap Generational Indicator (TFG) reached 43.0% in 2024, corresponding to a total fertility rate (TFR) of 1.18. This reflects a significant increase of 5.9 percentage points since 2023. Over the last five years (2020–2024), the TFG has been trending upward, averaging 31.7%. Compared to the 1970s average of 0.8%, the current figure is approximately 42.2 percentage points higher. The lowest TFG values were recorded in the early 1970s (1970–1974), when it averaged around 0.0%. Estonia ranks 8th out of 38 countries worldwide and holds one of the highest TFG levels in Europe, placing 5th among 31 nations.
| Year | TFG | Year | TFG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | n/a | 2010 | 16.9% |
| 1980 | 1.9% | 2020 | 24.6% |
| 1990 | 1.0% | 2023 | 37.1% |
| 2000 | 34.5% | 2024 | 43.0%* |
Source: Eurostat; Human Fertility Database. *Measure estimated by Birthgap.org based on partial data from Statistics Estonia.
Societal Half-Life (SHL)
In 2024, Estonia’s Societal Half-Life (SHL) is 38.1 years. It has decreased by 9.1 years compared with 2023. Over the past five years, SHL has been falling, averaging 60.7 years. Compared with the 1970s average (1234.4 years), SHL is now shorter by about 1196.3 years.
Globally, Estonia has one of the shortest SHL values (ranked 32/38).Within Europe, it has one of the shortest SHL values (ranked 27/31).
Triple Generation Impact (TGI)
With this Birthgap (TFG) for every 100 people of fertility age in Estonia, there would be 19 great-grandchildren, representing a -81.0% drop from the current generation.
Globally, Estonia ranks 8 out of 38 countries. Within Europe, it has one of the highest TGI drops (ranked 5/31).
Birth trajectory
The birth pattern observed in 2024 suggests a significant decline over the coming decades. Total births are projected to decrease from 9,690 in 2024 to 4,845 by 2062, representing a 50% reduction. This downward trend continues, with births expected to drop by 75% by 2100, before reaching a 90% decline, totaling just 969 births, by 2151. These figures assume no migration influence.
Childlessness rate (TCR)
The lifetime childlessness rate (TCR) in Estonia reached 48.1% in 2024, marking an increase of 3.7 percentage points from 2023. This trend of rising childlessness has persisted over the past five years, with the average from 2020 to 2024 at 41.0%. When compared with the 1970s average of -2.8%, the current rate is about 50.9 percentage points higher. Estonia stands out globally with one of the highest childlessness rates, ranking third out of 38 countries surveyed. In the European context, it holds the highest rate among 31 nations.
| Year | TCR | Year | TCR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | -9.8% | 2010 | 27.8% |
| 1980 | -1.0% | 2020 | 36.9% |
| 1990 | 2.5% | 2023 | 44.4% |
| 2000 | 34.3% | 2024 | 48.1%* |
Source: Eurostat; Human Fertility Database. *Measure estimated by Birthgap.org based on partial data from Statistics Estonia.
Total births
In 2024, Estonia recorded 9,690 total births, marking a decline of 1,254 from the previous year. The number of births has shown a downward trend over the past five years, with an average of 11,743 annually. When contrasted with the 1970s, which had an average of 21,723 births, the current figure reflects a significant drop of 12,033 births, equivalent to a 55.4% decrease.
| Year | Births | Year | Births |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | 21.6k | 2010 | 15.8k |
| 1980 | 22.2k | 2020 | 13.2k |
| 1990 | 22.3k | 2023 | 10.9k |
| 2000 | 13.1k | 2024 | 9,690* |
Source: Eurostat; Human Fertility Database. *Measure estimated by Birthgap.org based on partial data from Statistics Estonia.
Birthgap Retirement Indicator (BRI)
Estonia's Birthgap Retirement Indicator (BRI) reached 47.6% in 2024, showing a notable increase of 5.7 percentage points from 2023. Over the last five years (2020–2024), the BRI has been on an upward trend, averaging 36.2%. When compared to the 1970s average of -31.2%, the current BRI is approximately 78.8 percentage points higher. Among 35 countries globally, Estonia holds the 10th position for this metric, and within Europe, it ranks 7th out of 30 with one of the highest BRI values.
| Year | BRI | Year | BRI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | -77.3% | 2010 | 17.3% |
| 1980 | -9.0% | 2020 | 26.1% |
| 1990 | -6.0% | 2023 | 41.9% |
| 2000 | 34.3% | 2024 | 47.6%* |
Source: Eurostat; Human Fertility Database. *Measure estimated by Birthgap.org based on partial data from Statistics Estonia.
