Bulgaria
Based on the most recent published official birth records (and Birthgap harmonisation where noted).
Bulgaria experienced a notable decline in its total maternal rate (TMR) in 2024, dropping by 4.2 percentage points from the previous year to 85.8%, though it remains the highest both globally and in Europe. Despite this decrease, the total fertility gradient (TFG) saw a modest increase, signaling complex demographic shifts. The lifetime childlessness rate (TCR) also rose by 4.2 points to 14.2%.
- The average maternal age slightly declined to 27.6 years, placing Bulgaria among the countries with the youngest mothers in Europe and worldwide.
- The country has one of the lowest children per mother (CPM) ratios in Europe at 1.98, showing little change from 2023 but remaining below 1970s levels.
- Bulgaria's total births fell by roughly 3,500 in 2024, aligning with the decrease in TMR despite the rise in fertility gradient, suggesting potential shifts in reproductive behavior.
In 2024, Bulgaria shows a mixed demographic profile with the highest total maternal rate but the lowest total fertility gap in Europe. Average maternal age is notably low alongside a rising birth rate.
- Highest total maternal rate globally and in Europe (86%)
- One of the lowest average maternal ages in Europe (28 years)
- Lowest total fertility gap in Europe, indicating significant population decline
- Rising birthrate after previous declines, yet total births continue downward
Key fertility indicators — Bulgaria
| Total Maternal Rate (TMR) | 85.8% |
| Childlessness Rate (TCR) | 14.2% |
| Average Maternal Age (AMA) | 27.6 years |
| TGI (great-grandchildren per 100 parents) | 55 |
Motherhood prevalence (TMR)
The total maternal rate (TMR) for 2024 stands at 85.8%, marking a decline of 4.2 percentage points from 2023. Over the latest five-year span from 2020 to 2024, the TMR shows an upward trend with an average value of 85.6%. When compared to the 1970s average of 97.7%, the current TMR is approximately 11.9 percentage points lower. Notably, Bulgaria holds the highest TMR level both globally, ranked first out of 38 countries, and within Europe, ranking first among 31 countries.
| Year | TMR | Year | TMR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | 95.5% | 2010 | 83.5% |
| 1980 | 98.8% | 2020 | 81.4% |
| 1990 | 87.5% | 2023 | 90.0% |
| 2000 | 76.0% | 2024 | 85.8% |
Source: Eurostat; Human Fertility Database.
Children per mother (CPM)
The average number of children per mother in Bulgaria stands at 1.976 in 2024, showing a very slight decline from 1.979 in 2023. Over the past five years, the trend has been upwards, with a five-year average of 1.9494. When compared to the 1970s average of 2.2198, the current CPM is approximately 0.24 lower. Bulgaria ranks ninth out of 38 countries worldwide and is among the European nations with the lowest CPM, holding the seventh position out of 31.
| Year | CPM | Year | CPM |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | 2.27 | 2010 | 1.85 |
| 1980 | 2.07 | 2020 | 1.91 |
| 1990 | 2.03 | 2023 | 1.98 |
| 2000 | 1.73 | 2024 | 1.98 |
Source: Eurostat; Human Fertility Database.
Average maternal age (AMA)
The average maternal age (AMA) at birth in 2024 stands at 27.62 years, reflecting a small decrease of 0.16 years from the previous year. Looking at the last five years, the AMA has shown an upward trend, averaging 27.19 years during this period. This figure is notably 5.64 years higher than the average in the 1970s. While globally the AMA is among the lowest, ranking 36th out of 38 countries, it also ranks near the bottom within Europe, placing 29th out of 31.
| Year | BIRTH | Year | BIRTH |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | 21.99 | 2010 | 25.64 |
| 1980 | 21.85 | 2020 | 26.41 |
| 1990 | 22.01 | 2023 | 27.78 |
| 2000 | 23.48 | 2024 | 27.62 |
Source: Eurostat; Human Fertility Database.
Birthgap Generational Indicator (TFG)
The Birthgap Generational Indicator (TFG) for Bulgaria stands at 18.1% in 2024, corresponding to a total fertility rate of 1.70. This marks an increase of 4.1 percentage points from 2023. Over the past five years, the average TFG has decreased to 19.4% during 2020–2024. Compared to the 1970s average of 0.2%, the current figure is approximately 17.9 percentage points higher. Bulgaria experienced its lowest TFG between 1973 and 1979, registering at 0.0%. On a global scale, it holds the lowest TFG ranking at 38 out of 38 countries, and similarly within Europe, where it ranks 31st out of 31.
| Year | TFG | Year | TFG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | n/a | 2010 | 25.3% |
| 1980 | 1.0% | 2020 | 25.1% |
| 1990 | 14.1% | 2023 | 14.0% |
| 2000 | 36.5% | 2024 | 18.1% |
Source: Eurostat; Human Fertility Database.
Societal Half-Life (SHL)
Bulgaria’s SHL stands at 103.0 years years in 2024. It has decreased by 34.2 years compared with 2023. Over the past five years, SHL has been rising, averaging 100.4 years. Compared with the 1970s average (459.9 years), SHL is now shorter by about 356.9 years.
Globally, Bulgaria has the longest Societal Half-Life (ranked 1/38).Within Europe, Bulgaria has the longest SHL value (ranked 1/31).
Triple Generation Impact (TGI)
With this Birthgap (TFG) for every 100 people of fertility age in Bulgaria, there would be 55 great-grandchildren, representing a -45.0% drop from the current generation.
Globally, Bulgaria has the lowest TGI drop (ranked 38/38). Within Europe, Bulgaria has the lowest TGI drop (ranked 31/31).
Birth trajectory
According to the birth trajectory observed in 2024, total births are projected to decline significantly over the coming centuries. By 2127, the number of births is expected to reduce by half, dropping from 52,909 to 26,454. This downward trend continues with births forecasted to decrease by 75% by 2230 and eventually fall by 90%, reaching 5,291 by the year 2366. These projections consider birth patterns alone, without accounting for migration effects.
Childlessness rate (TCR)
By 2024, the lifetime childlessness rate (TCR) in Bulgaria reached 14.2%, marking an increase of 4.2 percentage points from 2023. Over the past five years, the TCR has averaged 14.4% and has generally been on a downward trend. Compared to the 1970s average of 2.3%, this represents an increase of roughly 11.9 percentage points. On both global and European scales, Bulgaria holds the distinction of having the lowest childlessness rate, ranking last among 38 countries worldwide and 31 countries within Europe.
| Year | TCR | Year | TCR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | 4.5% | 2010 | 16.5% |
| 1980 | 1.2% | 2020 | 18.6% |
| 1990 | 12.5% | 2023 | 10.0% |
| 2000 | 24.0% | 2024 | 14.2% |
Source: Eurostat; Human Fertility Database.
Total births
In 2024, Bulgaria recorded 52,909 total births, reflecting a decrease of 3,507 from the previous year. The number of births has been on a downward trend over the last five years, with an annual average of 56,528. When compared to the 1970s average of 139,501 births, the current total represents a significant decline of 86,592 births, amounting to a 62.1% reduction.
| Year | Births | Year | Births |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | 138.5k | 2010 | 75.2k |
| 1980 | 127.9k | 2020 | 58.8k |
| 1990 | 104.7k | 2023 | 56.4k |
| 2000 | 73.3k | 2024 | 52.9k |
Source: Eurostat; Human Fertility Database.
Birthgap Retirement Indicator (BRI)
The Birthgap Retirement Indicator (BRI) for Bulgaria reached 46.8% in 2024, marking a significant increase of 7.3 percentage points from the previous year. The indicator has been trending upwards over the last five years, with an average of 42.6% from 2020 to 2024. When compared to the 1970s average of -14.9%, the current level is higher by about 61.7 percentage points. On a global scale, Bulgaria holds the 14th position among 35 countries, and within Europe, it ranks 11th out of 30.
| Year | BRI | Year | BRI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | -45.9% | 2010 | 26.4% |
| 1980 | -10.9% | 2020 | 43.8% |
| 1990 | -6.5% | 2023 | 39.4% |
| 2000 | 40.6% | 2024 | 46.8% |
Source: Eurostat; Human Fertility Database.
