Belarus
Based on the most recent published official birth records (and Birthgap harmonisation where noted).
In 2018, Belarus witnessed a notable rise in lifetime childlessness, climbing to 38.1%, a 5 percentage point increase from the previous year, marking a continuation of a rising trend over the recent five-year period. This increase accompanies a sharp decline in completed fertility, which dropped 5 percentage points to 61.9% in 2018, reflecting sustained low fertility levels well below both European and global averages.
- The total fertility gap (TFG) rose modestly to 30.0%, indicating a slight uptick in the proportion of women having no children compared to previous years.
- Completed fertility fell by 5 percentage points, continuing a decline that places Belarus at the lowest level globally and within Europe.
- Average maternal age reached 25.9 years, the lowest in Europe, but showed a slight increase from 2017.
- Despite lower birth totals in 2018, children per mother increased slightly, signaling a small rise in family size among those who do have children.
In 2018, Belarus showed very low fertility indicators with continuing declines in births and a low maternal age at childbirth.
- Lowest total motherhood rate (TMR) in Europe and globally
- Average children per mother (CPM) rising slightly above 2.3
- Youngest mean maternal age in Europe at 25.9 years
- Lowest total fertility gap (TFG) and childlessness rate in Europe
- Shortest societal half-life (SHL) worldwide, signaling rapid demographic change
Key fertility indicators — Belarus
| Childlessness Rate (TCR) | 38.1% |
| TGI (great-grandchildren per 100 parents) | 34 |
Motherhood prevalence (TMR)
In 2018, the motherhood prevalence rate in Belarus stood at 61.9%, marking a significant drop of 5.0 percentage points from the previous year. Over the past five years, the total motherhood rate (TMR) has continued to decline, averaging 72.6% between 2014 and 2018. This figure is considerably lower than the 1970s average, which was nearly 99.7%, indicating a decrease of approximately 37.8 percentage points. The earliest recorded low point occurred in the early 2000s, specifically between 2002 and 2005, when the TMR was 71.5%. Among both global and European countries, Belarus ranks last in motherhood prevalence, positioned 38th out of 38 worldwide and 31st out of 31 within Europe.
| Year | TMR | Year | TMR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | 102.1% | 2010 | 77.4% |
| 1980 | 98.8% | 2017 | 66.9% |
| 1990 | 101.9% | 2018 | 61.9% |
| 2000 | 75.8% | 2020 | n/a |
Source: Human Fertility Database.
Children per mother (CPM)
In 2018, Belarus recorded a children per mother (CPM) rate of 2.34, marking a slight increase of 0.04 from the previous year’s 2.30. The CPM has been trending upward over the last five years, averaging 2.25 during that span. This figure is also around 0.14 higher than the average seen in the 1970s, which stood at 2.20.
| Year | CPM | Year | CPM |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | 2.31 | 2010 | 1.93 |
| 1980 | 2.03 | 2017 | 2.30 |
| 1990 | 1.88 | 2018 | 2.34 |
| 2000 | 1.74 | 2020 | n/a |
Source: Human Fertility Database.
Average maternal age (AMA)
The average maternal age in Belarus reached 25.85 years in 2018, marking a slight increase of 0.13 years from 2017. During the last five years, this figure has shown an upward trend, with the average maternal age standing at 25.57 years. Compared to the 1970s average of 23.625 years, the current average is about 2.2 years higher. Belarus's maternal age rose from a minimum average of 22.83 years between 1992 and 1994 to its highest average of 25.73 years during 2016 to 2018.
| Year | BIRTH | Year | BIRTH |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | 24.07 | 2010 | 24.85 |
| 1980 | 23.19 | 2017 | 25.72 |
| 1990 | 22.90 | 2018 | 25.85 |
| 2000 | 23.38 | 2020 | n/a |
Source: Human Fertility Database.
Birthgap Generational Indicator (TFG)
In 2018, Belarus recorded a Birthgap Generational Indicator (TFG) of 0.3, marking an increase of 0.044 from 2017 when it stood at 0.256. Over the five-year period leading up to 2018, the indicator has been on the rise, averaging 0.2134. This recent figure considerably exceeds the averages seen during the 1970s, which was around 0.011. The lowest three-year average TFG was observed between 1978 and 1980, at 0.0173. Between 2002 and 2004, the highest three-year average of 0.403 was recorded. Belarus's TFG indicates the lowest level both globally and within Europe, ranking last out of 38 countries worldwide and among 31 European nations.
| Year | TFG | Year | TFG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | n/a | 2010 | 27.8% |
| 1980 | 3.0% | 2017 | 25.6% |
| 1990 | 7.6% | 2018 | 30.0% |
| 2000 | 36.3% | 2020 | n/a |
Source: Human Fertility Database.
Societal Half-Life (SHL)
Belarus’s SHL stands at 54.0 years years in 2018. It has decreased by 11.1 years compared with 2017. Over the past five years, SHL has been rising, averaging 85.2 years. Compared with the 1970s average (1239.3 years), SHL is now shorter by about 1185.2 years.
Globally, Belarus has the shortest Societal Half-Life (ranked 38/38).Within Europe, Belarus has the shortest SHL value (ranked 31/31).
Triple Generation Impact (TGI)
With this Birthgap (TFG) for every 100 people of fertility age in Belarus, there would be 34 great-grandchildren, representing a -66.0% drop from the current generation.
Globally, Belarus has the lowest TGI drop (ranked 38/38). Within Europe, Belarus has the lowest TGI drop (ranked 31/31).
Birth trajectory
If birth trends from 2018 continue, the total number of births is projected to decline significantly over the coming centuries. Specifically, births would decrease by 50%, dropping from 94,027 in 2018 to 47,014 by the year 2072. This downward trajectory would persist, with births falling by 75% by 2126 and ultimately reaching a 90% reduction to 9,403 in 2197, not accounting for migration.
Childlessness rate (TCR)
By 2018, the lifetime childlessness rate (TCR) in Belarus reached 38.1%, marking a 5.0 percentage point increase compared to 2017. Over the five years from 2014 to 2018, the TCR has shown an upward trend, averaging 27.4%. This figure stands roughly 37.8 percentage points higher than the 1970s baseline of 0.3%. Notably, Belarus records the lowest childlessness rate both globally, ranked 38th out of 38 countries, and within Europe, holding the 31st position out of 31 countries.
| Year | TCR | Year | TCR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | -2.1% | 2010 | 22.6% |
| 1980 | 1.2% | 2017 | 33.1% |
| 1990 | -1.9% | 2018 | 38.1% |
| 2000 | 24.2% | 2020 | n/a |
Source: Human Fertility Database.
Total births
In 2018, Belarus recorded 94,027 total births, marking a decline of 8,514 compared to 2017. The number of births has been on a downward trend over the past five years, with an average annual total of 110,375. When looking back to the 1970s, the average yearly total births were significantly higher at 148,140, making the current figure 54,113 births fewer, representing a 36.5% decrease.
| Year | Births | Year | Births |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | 146.7k | 2010 | 108.0k |
| 1980 | 154.4k | 2017 | 102.5k |
| 1990 | 142.2k | 2018 | 94.0k |
| 2000 | 93.7k | 2020 | n/a |
Source: Human Fertility Database.
Birthgap Retirement Indicator (BRI)
The Birthgap Retirement Indicator (BRI) for Belarus reached 24.8% in 2018, marking an increase of 4.7 percentage points from 2017. Over the span from 2014 to 2018, the five-year average BRI stood at 17.8%, showing an upward trend. When compared to the 1970s average of -45.7%, the current value represents a rise of about 70.6 percentage points. On the global scale, Belarus's BRI ranks at the bottom, being 35th out of 35 countries. Similarly, within Europe, Belarus holds the lowest position with a rank of 30 out of 30.
| Year | BRI | Year | BRI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | -120.1% | 2010 | 32.6% |
| 1980 | -11.6% | 2017 | 20.1% |
| 1990 | -7.5% | 2018 | 24.8% |
| 2000 | 33.5% | 2020 | n/a |
Source: Human Fertility Database.