Belarus
Based on the most recent published official birth records (and Birthgap harmonisation where noted).
Belarus's demographic indicators in 2018 reveal a marked increase in lifetime childlessness, rising to 38.1%, up 5 percentage points from 2017, continuing a five-year upward trend. This rise in childlessness accompanies a sharp decline in the total maternity rate, now at 61.9%, down 5 percentage points from the previous year and significantly lower than its 1970s levels. The average maternal age remains the lowest in Europe, though it has inched upward slightly.
- Total maternity rate declined by 5 percentage points to 61.9% in 2018, the lowest in Europe and well below the 1970s average of nearly 100%.
- Lifetime childlessness increased to 38.1%, a considerable rise signaling fewer women are having children overall.
- Completed parity mean grew slightly to 2.34 children per mother, indicating stable family size among those who do have children.
- Average maternal age rose slightly to 25.9 years, still the lowest in Europe, though up from the 1970s average by over two years.
In 2018, Belarus showed notably low fertility levels and a young mean age at childbirth compared to global and European averages.
- Lowest total maternal reproduction globally and in Europe
- Youngest average maternal age in Europe and worldwide
- Highest mean children per mother above 2.3
- Rising three-plus child families contrasting falling one-child prevalence
- Sharp long-term decline in total births and societal half-life
Key fertility indicators — Belarus
| Childlessness Rate (TCR) | 38.1% |
| TGI (great-grandchildren per 100 parents) | 34 |
Motherhood prevalence (TMR)
Completed fertility among mothers in Belarus was 61.9% in 2018, marking a notable decline of 5.0 percentage points from the previous year. Over the five-year span from 2014 to 2018, the total motherhood rate steadily decreased, averaging 72.6%. Compared to the 1970s average of 99.7%, the current level is approximately 37.8 percentage points lower. The country's lowest TMR was observed in the early 2000s, between 2002 and 2005, at 71.5%. On both a global and European scale, Belarus holds the lowest TMR, ranking 38th out of 38 countries worldwide and 31st out of 31 in Europe.
| Year | TMR | Year | TMR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | 102.1% | 2010 | 77.4% |
| 1980 | 98.8% | 2017 | 66.9% |
| 1990 | 101.9% | 2018 | 61.9% |
| 2000 | 75.8% | 2020 | n/a |
Source: Human Fertility Database.
Children per mother (CPM)
In 2018, the number of children per mother (CPM) in Belarus reached 2.34, showing a slight increase of 0.04 from 2017. Over the latest five years, the CPM has been on an upward trend, averaging 2.25. This figure stands approximately 0.14 above the average recorded during the 1970s, which was 2.20.
| Year | CPM | Year | CPM |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | 2.31 | 2010 | 1.93 |
| 1980 | 2.03 | 2017 | 2.30 |
| 1990 | 1.88 | 2018 | 2.34 |
| 2000 | 1.74 | 2020 | n/a |
Source: Human Fertility Database.
Average maternal age (AMA)
In 2018, the average maternal age in Belarus reached 25.85 years, marking a small increase of 0.13 years from 2017. This trend is part of a steady rise over the last five years, with the average maternal age during this period standing at 25.57 years. Compared to the 1970s, the average maternal age has grown by about 2.2 years, up from 23.625. The minimum recorded over a three-year span was 22.83 during 1992 to 1994, while the maximum of 25.73 occurred from 2016 to 2018. Belarus maintains the lowest average maternal age both globally and within Europe, ranking last in each region.
| Year | BIRTH | Year | BIRTH |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | 24.07 | 2010 | 24.85 |
| 1980 | 23.19 | 2017 | 25.72 |
| 1990 | 22.90 | 2018 | 25.85 |
| 2000 | 23.38 | 2020 | n/a |
Source: Human Fertility Database.
Birthgap Generational Indicator (TFG)
The Birthgap Generational Indicator (TFG) for Belarus reached 30.0% in 2018, which corresponds to a total fertility rate of 1.45. This marks an increase of 4.4 percentage points from 2017. Over the past five years, the TFG averaged 21.3% between 2014 and 2018, showing a rising trend. When compared to the 1970s average of 0.2%, the current figure stands about 29.8 percentage points higher. The lowest recorded TFG occurred during the mid-1980s, specifically between 1986 and 1988, averaging around 0.0%. On a global scale, Belarus ranks last (38th out of 38) in TFG levels, and similarly holds the lowest position within Europe (31st out of 31).
| Year | TFG | Year | TFG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | n/a | 2010 | 27.8% |
| 1980 | 3.0% | 2017 | 25.6% |
| 1990 | 7.6% | 2018 | 30.0% |
| 2000 | 36.3% | 2020 | n/a |
Source: Human Fertility Database.
Societal Half-Life (SHL)
Belarus’s SHL stands at 54.0 years years in 2018. It has decreased by 11.1 years compared with 2017. Over the past five years, SHL has been rising, averaging 85.2 years. Compared with the 1970s average (1239.3 years), SHL is now shorter by about 1185.2 years.
Globally, Belarus has the shortest Societal Half-Life (ranked 38/38).Within Europe, Belarus has the shortest SHL value (ranked 31/31).
Triple Generation Impact (TGI)
With this Birthgap (TFG) for every 100 people of fertility age in Belarus, there would be 34 great-grandchildren, representing a -66.0% drop from the current generation.
Globally, Belarus has the lowest TGI drop (ranked 38/38). Within Europe, Belarus has the lowest TGI drop (ranked 31/31).
Birth trajectory
Using the birth rate observed in 2018, the number of births is projected to decrease significantly over time. From 94,027 births in 2018, the count is expected to drop to 47,014 by 2072, representing a 50% decline. Further ahead, by 2197, births could fall as low as 9,403, a 90% reduction from the 2018 level, assuming migration does not affect these numbers.
Childlessness rate (TCR)
Belarus recorded a lifetime childlessness rate (TCR) of 38.1% in 2018, marking an increase of 5.0 percentage points from 2017. Over the five years ending in 2018, the TCR has shown an upward trend, averaging 27.4% during 2014–2018. Compared to the 1970s baseline of 0.3%, this represents a rise of approximately 37.8 percentage points. Notably, Belarus has the lowest childlessness rate both globally, ranking 38 out of 38, and within Europe, where it ranks last among 31 countries.
| Year | TCR | Year | TCR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | -2.1% | 2010 | 22.6% |
| 1980 | 1.2% | 2017 | 33.1% |
| 1990 | -1.9% | 2018 | 38.1% |
| 2000 | 24.2% | 2020 | n/a |
Source: Human Fertility Database.
Total births
In 2018, Belarus recorded 94,027 total births, marking a decrease of 8,514 from the previous year. The five-year trend shows a decline in total births, averaging 110,375 annually during that period. When measured against the 1970s average of 148,140 births, the current numbers represent a reduction of 54,113 births, which is a 36.5% drop.
| Year | Births | Year | Births |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | 146.7k | 2010 | 108.0k |
| 1980 | 154.4k | 2017 | 102.5k |
| 1990 | 142.2k | 2018 | 94.0k |
| 2000 | 93.7k | 2020 | n/a |
Source: Human Fertility Database.
Birthgap Retirement Indicator (BRI)
The Birthgap Retirement Indicator (BRI) for Belarus reached 24.8% in 2018, marking an increase of 4.7 percentage points from 2017. Over the past five years, the BRI averaged 17.8% from 2014 to 2018, showing a rising trend. Compared to the 1970s average of -45.7%, Belarus's current BRI is approximately 70.6 percentage points higher. Within both global and European contexts, Belarus holds the lowest BRI values, ranking 35th out of 35 globally and 30th out of 30 in Europe.
| Year | BRI | Year | BRI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | -120.1% | 2010 | 32.6% |
| 1980 | -11.6% | 2017 | 20.1% |
| 1990 | -7.5% | 2018 | 24.8% |
| 2000 | 33.5% | 2020 | n/a |
Source: Human Fertility Database.